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Ten years after the UK entered into a hurried public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is prepared.

That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Establishments Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.

"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue

The team have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.

"What concerns everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Legal Framework

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity if and when there could be a referendum.

Absence of Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said McBride.

"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with the fundamentals. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"

Volume's Strategy

In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Both writes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social figures, previous instances and constitutional models.

Debates range over national emblems, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to enlighten and provoke discussion.

"There's huge interest in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be good arguments on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they prefer unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland must determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Likelihood of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, valid arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."

Call for Broader Discussion

Westminster must join the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."